Project updates

Cattle farmers across the UK are being asked to urged to contribute to the co-design of our new simulation model that could speed up eradication of BVD and other costly infectious diseases.

Our model aims to be the first to include farmers’ decision-making and preferences as a separate component in modelling national cattle disease control.

Input is being collected via a questionnaire which offers participating cattle keepers a range of scenarios and asks what they would do next. Their answers will then be linked to models of pathogen spread to predict how quickly the disease might decline—or increase—based on different control circumstances.

University of Nottingham’s Dr Marnie Brennan, the project lead, says that while the ultimate goal is to extend the model to all infectious cattle diseases, BVD is being tackled first because the virus is common, costly to farmers, but also highly eradicable.

“BVD suppresses immunity, commonly manifesting as cows not-in-calf or calf losses, and calves which are more susceptible to respiratory disease or scours,” explains Dr Brennan.

“Overall, BVD has been calculated to cost UK farmers up to £162 million each year, so eradicating it would provide a big boost to farm profitability.”

Dr Brennan says Ireland set up a similar model to help tackle  BVD in 2013, and by 2020, prevalence of the disease had fallen by 95%. “We’re looking to create something similar, but have added this important component around decision-making following feedback from discussion groups we held with farmers around the UK over the past year.”

She adds that the UK model will also have to deal with the complexities and interactions of the disease between the four nations and their different control programmes.

Our survey is still going strong, but we need more responses from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Please go to https://bit.ly/cattlediseasedecisions to ensure your view is taken into account.

The majority of the focus groups have been completed, and using that knowledge, and insights from the modelling team, we have launched our survey.

The survey aims to generate data showing the different decisions people make around cattle disease – and this data will be plugged into the new model.

If you are a cattle keeper in the UK, or you know cattle keepers who might be willing to help us with this project, please share the link and encourage participation. Every answer will help us design ways towards controlling or even eradicating cattle disease! https://bit.ly/cattlediseasedecisions.

Happy New Year! We are now more than half way through our focus groups, with three to go. Everyone who has taken part so far says they have really enjoy them; we’ve tried to keep them as interactive and enjoyable as possible. Importantly, cattle keepers who take part say they appreciate the opportunity to express their experiences and – sometimes – frustrations.

The team embarked on a series of focus groups across the UK to explore view of cattle keepers on cattle diseases, BVD, and what they think affects control. The groups kick off in Northern Ireland, then move on to Aberdeenshire, Devon, Carmarthenshire, Dumfriesshire, and finally, Clwyd.

The cross-nation advisory Group met again, and BVD Platform arranged to present the ‘model so far’ in June 2025. 

The way in which farmers interact with BVD control, including how they perceive risk, and what they feel are the most important, effective or practical steps to take to protect their herd, is really important in the development of the model.

We undertook our first ‘pilot’ focus group in July to better understand some of the views of cattle keepers. This was very informative, and we have now refined an approach to use with further groups in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in the autumn.

Model development is progressing. The team have had to start with some assumptions, such as how easily animals infect each other, how quickly they recover, the number that die, and how long immunity and antibodies last.

We’ve also assumed that all transmission comes from PIs, and we’ve categorised animals as susceptible, infected, recovered or PIs. From that, we’ve looked at all the different ways animals can become infected and have mapped the probability of each. A novel area in this model compared with the model developed in Ireland is we are looking at how farmer attitudes and decision-making affects the outcome.

We’ve just held our first Advisory Group meeting in Birmingham! Representatives from the BVD control programmes across the four nations attended, as well as researcher involved with developing the extremely successful model in Ireland that has overseen a significant reduction in BVD since 2013.